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Lesson three a. daily objectives 1. lesson content a. review greeting questions, sing the song "buenos dias, " see appendix a. b. teach them to count to ten. c. teach the song "ten little indians." 2. concept objectives a. students communicate in a foreign language while demonstrating literacy in all four essential skills: listening, speaking, reading, and writing. b. students develop an appreciation of the spanish culture and the differences among spanish speaking countries. 3. skill objectives a. counting by one's b. materials 1. words to the song "ten little indians, " appendix d 2. collect any variety of objects from around the classroom for them to count.

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Statistically, seventeen is the "magic number", the point at which your odds of winning are better when you stay with what you already have rather than taking an additional card. ; decision under uncertainty is the tough nut to crack. unfortunately, this is the situation in which most people find themselves most often--certainly in the decisions that matter most: a person's career, a major financial investment, whether to marry a particular person, or a business decision. making decisions under conditions of uncertainty means that there are serious doubts about the outcome and that you can't effectively assign discrete mathematical probabilities to the possible outcomes. in other words, it's worse than a crap shoot. if most of our decisions are made under uncertainty, how can we possibly make them, particularly the critical ones, with any degree of confidence that we're doing the right thing? intuition one way is to use intuition. everybody has heard of intuition. many people absolutely depend on it to make the right decisions. intuition is the act or faculty of knowing or sensing something without the use of rational processes. in other words, immediate cognition or a perceptive insight. it can also be considered having a sense of something not evident or deducible, maybe an impression. [6] when the hair on the back of your neck stands up, it may well be your intuition telling you that something is not quite right. it serves some people very well. but unless you're reliably clairvoyant, intuition can lead you wrong as often as right. mathematical models or simulations one of the most seductive aids people and businesses ; use to help them make decisions is models or simulations. a number of companies particularly software companies ; have made a lot of money selling the idea that a computer is better at making complicated decisions than humans are. when these are fairly routine decisions, this is certainly true--computers can usually make such decisions much faster and more reliably over time than humans, especially for repetitive decisions. but models and computer simulations have a major shortcoming: they require that all the relevant variables in any decision be mathematically quantifiable or at the very least, that mathematical probabilities be assignable. deming once said, ".the most important figures that one needs for management are unknown or unknowable." [1: 121] he recognized that many important things that must be managed can't be measured. in other words, you can't measure everything of importance to management, but you must still manage them. computers and simulations are capable of great precision, but as goldratt once observed, it's often better to be approximately correct than precisely wrong. making better decisions under uncertainty decisions under uncertainty will always be.well, uncertain. but there are ways to reduce uncertainty to a reasonable level. one approach is to combine verifiable facts or evidence, to the extent that it is available, with logically verifiable causality. most people are comfortable with the idea of basing decisions on facts or evidence, but they're less certain about how logic and facts combine to provide the best available basis for decision making. in the mid-1950s, luft and ingham conceived of the johari window to help explain how members of groups learn to interact. with a little adaptation, the.

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